@misc{36,
  author = {Maureen Beaudor and Nicolas Vuichard and Juliette Lathiere and Didier Hauglustaine},
  title = {Future trends of global agricultural emissions of ammonia in a changing climate},
  abstract = {<p>Because of human population growth, global livestock, and associated ammonia, emissions are projected to increase through the end of the century, with possible impacts on atmospheric chemistry and climate. In this study, we propose a methodology to project global gridded livestock densities and NH<sub>3</sub> emissions from agriculture until 2100. Based on future regional livestock production and constrained by grassland distribution evolution, future livestock distribution has been projected for three Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP2-4.5, SSP4-3.4, and SSP5-8.5) and used in the CAMEO process-based model to estimate the resulting NH<sub>3</sub> emissions until 2100. Our global future emissions compare well with the range estimated in Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), but some significant differences arise within the SSPs. Our global future ammonia emissions in 2100 range from 50 to 70 TgN.yr<sup>-1 </sup>depending on the SSPs, representing an increase of 30 to 50 \% compared to present day. Africa is identified as the region with the most significant regional emission budget worldwide, ranging from 10 to 16 TgN.yr<sup>-1</sup> in 2100. Through a set of simulations, we quantified the impact of climate change on future NH<sub>3</sub> emissions. Climate change is estimated to contribute to the emission increase of up to 20\%. The produced datasets of future NH<sub>3</sub> emissions is an alternative option to IAM-based emissions for studies aiming at projecting the evolution of atmospheric chemistry and its impact on climate.</p>},
  url = {https://essopenarchive.org/users/713500/articles/697842-future-trends-of-global-agricultural-emissions-of-ammonia-in-a-changing-climate},
  doi = {10.22541/essoar.170542263.35872590/v1},
}